National Weather Service Shares Surprising New Winter Forecast for Boise

Did you know that this September has been one of the warmest Septembers on record in Boise? Will that trend continue into the winter months? The latest seasonal outlook from the National Weather Service may surprise you. 

And we say you'll be surprised mainly because the Farmer’s Almanac prediction for Winter 2023-2024 titled “The Brrr is Back” has gone viral, just like their “Shake! Shiver! Shovel!” forecast did in 2022 and “Frosty Flip-Flop Winter” did in 2021. That headline will appear everywhere. People will act like it’s gospel, but just remember that the forecast is put together by a “weather prognosticator” who goes by a fake name and doesn’t share the formula they use to make the forecast.

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Listen, we totally understand the interest in long-range winter forecasts. Especially if you’re someone who lived through Boise Snowpocalypse 2016-2017. The Farmer’s Almanac isn’t the ONLY long-range forecast on the internet. The National Weather Service’s “Climate Prediction Center” has published its three-month outlook for December, January and February 2023-24, which covers “meteorological winter” and when it comes to Boise. It’s a far cry from headlines you’ve seen like “This is Why Boise Is In for a Frigid Winter This Year.” 

Will Boise Actually Be Frigid This Winter?

According to the National Weather Service’s seasonal temperature outlook, that headline is grossly exaggerated. The long-range forecast they published in August shows that there’s a 40-50% chance that Boise will actually experience ABOVE normal temperatures this winter. So what does “average” look like? Here’s what historical data tells us. 

Will Boise Experience Another Snowpocalypse?

If you were hoping we’d say “yes,” we hate to disappoint you. Probably not. For now, it looks like Southwest Idaho is going to have an equal chance of more or less than normal precipitation. (Northern Idaho could see less than normal.) So what could that mean? Take a peek at what’s considered “normal” for Boise. 

It’s worth noting that long-range forecasts are tough to trust, no matter where they come from and it’s completely possible for this forecast to change before meteorological winter actually begins. Plus, we know that in Boise, if you don’t like the weather, wait five minutes. It will change! These winter weather extremes are definitely a testament to how unpredictable Boise weather can be.