Boise State Eyes Favorable Matchups As Broncos Transition Into Pac-12 Conference Play

As Week 5 approaches, much of the nation has wrapped up its nonconference schedule. For Boise State, that means it's time to turn the page.

After winning the Mountain West for three straight years, the Broncos are venturing into a new frontier: the Pac-12.

While the conference is new to Boise State, most of its members are familiar opponents. Here's the breakdown.

Win vs. Utah State

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Whatever the opposite of a September champion is, that's what Utah State has been in 2026.

Through four games, the Aggies are averaging just 13 points and 319 yards of total offense per game. Their quarterback, Grady Brosterhous, has thrown four touchdowns and six interceptions, with half of those touchdown passes coming in last week's game against Troy.

That game also marked Utah State's lone win of the season.

The Aggies have struggled to find consistency on offense, and their production so far suggests Boise State can have a strong defensive outing. The Broncos have the advantage in nearly every major offensive category, and Utah State will need a significant improvement to keep pace.

For Boise State, the key will be winning — or at least breaking even in — the turnover battle. In Week 3, the Broncos struggled in that area, allowing South Dakota to hang around late into the fourth quarter.

As long as Boise State sets the tone on defense and takes care of the football, this should be a manageable introduction to Pac-12 play.

Win at Fresno State

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Fresno State has been a mixed bag in 2026.

After getting shut out by USC, 39-0, in Week 1, the Bulldogs have responded with three consecutive victories. They've outscored opponents 113-37 over that stretch, averaging 37.6 points per game.

That's quite a turnaround for a team that looked completely outmatched in its season opener.

The Bulldogs don't have one glaring weakness, but they don't excel in any particular area, either. Both their offense and defense are middle of the Pac, and they struggled against a USC team that may not be all it's cracked up to be.

Simply put, Boise State took Oregon down to the wire in Week 1, while Fresno State failed to score a point in 60 minutes. If the math checks out, the Ducks' road victory over the Trojans equates to a Broncos victory over the Bulldogs — on paper, at least.

Win at Washington State

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Washington State presents an unusual matchup for the Broncos.

The Cougars boast the best pass defense in the Pac-12, but their run defense ranks second-worst in the conference, ahead of only Colorado State. That split is favorable to a Boise State offense that boasts a top-20 ground attack, averaging 237 rushing yards per game.

On the other side of the ball, the Cougars have struggled to generate much offense. They produce the fewest total yards per game of any Pac-12 team and rank second-to-last in scoring, averaging 22.3 points per game. Only Utah State has scored fewer points.

That combination of offensive struggles and a vulnerable run defense gives Boise State a clear path to controlling the matchup.

Win vs. Texas State

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Texas State will roll into Boise for a late-night Halloween blackout game.

The Bobcats enter the Pac-12 as outsiders, as they are the only football program that wasn't previously in the Mountain West.

Before leaving the Sun Belt Conference, Texas State established itself as a consistent postseason participant. Since 2023, the Bobcats have won three consecutive bowl games, something Boise State hasn't done once in that stretch.

Brad Jackson was named the preseason first-team All-Pac-12 quarterback, but is having a bit of a sophomore slump. Through four games, he's thrown for 854 yards and 10 touchdowns, not far off from fifth-year senior quarterback Maddux Madsen's 814 yards and nine touchdowns.

Contrary to popular belief, Boise State doesn't have the best rushing attack in the Pac-12 … Texas State does.

While junior running back Dylan Riley may be the nation's third-leading rusher, Texas State ranks sixth nationally in rushing offense, averaging 281 yards per game. Boise State's run defense should be up to the task, though, as the Broncos allow just 100 yards per game on the ground this season.

Defensively, the Bobcats have a glaring weakness. They've taken the reins as the nation's worst pass defense, allowing 348 yards per game through the air.

With the game taking place at Albertsons Stadium, the Broncos will have the benefit of a home crowd that could make life difficult for Texas State's offense.

Win at Colorado State

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Colorado State might be the most dangerous opponent on Boise State's Pac-12 schedule.

The Rams have assembled an explosive offense, averaging 40.3 points per game, which ranks 22nd nationally. Their passing game has been particularly effective, producing 297 yards per contest, good for 19th in the country.

Boise State's saving grace could be its run game … again. The Broncos are among the nation's best rushing teams, while Colorado State's run defense is lacking.

The strangest part of this matchup is that both teams have glaring defensive weaknesses that the opposing offense is uniquely equipped to exploit.

More specifically, Boise State's pass defense ranks 131st in the nation, allowing 278 yards per game, while the Rams' run defense ranks 135th, allowing 230 yards per game.

The deciding factor will likely be time of possession, something Boise State has controlled well in 2026.

The last time the Broncos visited Canvas Stadium, they lost on a Hail Mary in the final second. The Rams will have a difficult time replicating that finish this time around.

Loss at Oregon State

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Oregon State might be the most difficult team to forecast as Boise State moves deeper into conference play.

The Beavers enter the schedule at 2-2, but their record doesn't tell the entire story. Both losses came against ranked Big 12 opponents, and Oregon State managed to keep both games competitive.

Sophomore quarterback Braden Atkinson has been a major reason Oregon State has remained competitive.

He's thrown for 1,421 yards and 11 touchdowns this season, helping the Beavers rank third nationally in passing offense.

Oregon State's young quarterback could pose a serious problem for a Boise State secondary that still has plenty of room to improve.

The Broncos will likely need a complete performance to come away with a win on the road.

Win vs. San Diego State

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San Diego State remains one of the few conference rivals that has beaten Boise State with some regularity.

Over the last 10 meetings, the Aztecs have won five times, including last year's 17-7 victory in San Diego.

This season, however, the circumstances are different. SDSU's offense ranks among the worst in the Pac-12, averaging 313.8 yards and a measly 23 points per game.

The Aztecs' defense has struggled as well, allowing 412.8 yards and 28.8 points per game.

Boise State gets the Aztecs at home, which will be a significant advantage, as the Broncos have won two of the last three meetings on The Blue.

Flex Game

Week 12 is still to be determined. Depending on the Group of 6 College Football Playoff race, Boise State could face a quality Pac-12 opponent to bolster its résumé or a lower-ranked conference opponent if the Broncos enter the season finale in a favorable position.